Lula's Win Keeps Brazil's Betting Ban Alive—What It Means for Mexico

Dr. Annelies De Vos · 2026-10-26

So Lula da Silva pulled it off again. Brazil's president just secured a fourth term, and with that, the government that brought you the current betting ban isn't going anywhere. If you're in the online casino world—especially if you're watching Mexico—this is kind of a big deal. With 99.75% of the votes counted, Lula had 51.75% of the valid votes, edging out Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.25%, according to the Superior Electoral Court. That's a pretty tight race, and it flipped the first-round result from October 4, when Bolsonaro was ahead 47.03% to 45.16%. Goes to show you can't count anyone out until the last ballot's in. ### What This Means for the Betting Ban Provisional Measure 1,394 is the law that put the brakes on Brazil's betting scene. It was introduced by the current government, and now that Lula's staying put, that measure isn't going anywhere either. For operators and players alike, it's a signal that Brazil's stance on betting isn't softening anytime soon. But why should you care if you're in the U.S. or Mexico? Well, Brazil's a massive market, and its policies tend to ripple across the region. Mexico's online casino industry is watching closely—if Brazil keeps its ban, it could influence how Mexico approaches regulation too. It's like a domino effect; one big player makes a move, and everyone else takes note. ### The Election in a Nutshell The numbers tell a story of a deeply divided electorate. Lula's comeback is impressive, but the narrow margin shows there's still a lot of support for Bolsonaro's camp. And prediction markets? They were all over the place, but in the end, they couldn't call it any better than the polls. > "The result overturned the first-round order from October 4, when Bolsonaro led with 47.03% against Lula's 45.16%." That quote from the Superior Electoral Court's data sums it up—this was a race that kept everyone guessing until the end. ### What's Next for Online Casinos? For now, it's business as usual in Brazil, which means the ban stays. But for the rest of us, it's a reminder that politics and betting are more intertwined than ever. If you're a player in Mexico, keep an eye on how your own regulators react. They might see Brazil's stability as a reason to maintain the status quo—or they might go the other way. Either way, the conversation around online gambling in Latin America is far from over. And with Lula back in the driver's seat, Brazil's course is set for the next few years. Whether that's good or bad for the industry depends on where you're standing. One thing's for sure: the world of online casinos is always changing, and staying informed is your best bet. So keep watching—this story's not done yet.