Why Tribal Gaming Leaders Are Sounding the Alarm on Prediction Markets

Dr. Annelies De Vos · 2026-07-22

Leaders from the tribal gaming sector are raising serious concerns that the rapid growth of prediction markets could cut into casino revenue that funds tribal governments and public services. This issue took center stage at the Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association (OIGA) Conference and Trade Show, where tribal representatives called it one of the biggest threats the industry has ever faced. Their warnings come even as new industry figures show commercial and tribal gaming revenues are still at record levels. It’s a weird moment, right? Record revenue, but leaders are worried. Here’s the thing—prediction markets let people bet on things like election results, sports outcomes, and even weather events. They’re not exactly casinos, but they pull in the same kind of money. And that’s the problem. ### What Are Prediction Markets, Anyway? Prediction markets are platforms where you can place bets on future events. Think of them like a stock market for outcomes. You bet on whether something will happen, and if you’re right, you get paid. They’ve been around for a while, but they’ve exploded in popularity recently. In the United States, platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi are growing fast, and they’re drawing in players who might otherwise hit up a casino. For tribal casinos, this is a direct hit. These casinos aren’t just businesses—they’re lifelines for tribal communities. The money they generate pays for schools, healthcare, and infrastructure. So when prediction markets siphon off even a small percentage of that revenue, it hurts. ### The Numbers Tell a Story Industry figures show that commercial and tribal gaming revenues hit record highs in 2023. Commercial casinos brought in over $66 billion, and tribal casinos added another $41 billion. That’s a lot of cash. But here’s the catch: growth is slowing. And prediction markets are growing at breakneck speed. - **Tribal gaming revenue** in Oklahoma alone was over $5 billion in 2023. - **Prediction market volume** on platforms like Kalshi hit $1.2 billion in 2024, up from just $200 million in 2022. - **Consumer shift**: A survey by the American Gaming Association found that 12% of casino players also use prediction markets regularly. That last number might not sound huge, but if you’re a casino operator, every dollar counts. A 12% drop in foot traffic could mean millions in lost revenue. ### Why Tribal Leaders Are Worried At the OIGA Conference, tribal leaders didn’t mince words. They argued that prediction markets are essentially unregulated gambling. They operate under different rules than casinos, which are heavily taxed and regulated. This creates an uneven playing field. “We’re not against innovation,” one tribal leader said. “But when these platforms take money out of our communities, we have to ask: who’s watching them?” The concern is that as prediction markets grow, they’ll eat into casino revenue without providing the same benefits. Casinos pay taxes, create jobs, and fund public services. Prediction markets? They mostly line the pockets of their owners. ### The Bigger Picture This isn’t just a tribal issue. It’s a national one. Tribal gaming supports over 700,000 jobs across the United States. It generates billions in tax revenue for states and local governments. If prediction markets cut into that, everyone feels it. But here’s the twist: some experts argue that prediction markets could actually help casinos. They see them as a new product to offer, not a threat. Imagine a casino that lets you bet on the Super Bowl and the next presidential election. That could attract a younger, tech-savvy crowd. Still, tribal leaders aren’t convinced. They’re calling for regulation that levels the playing field. They want prediction markets to face the same rules as casinos, including age restrictions and responsible gambling measures. ### What’s Next? The debate is far from over. Congress is starting to take notice. A few lawmakers have introduced bills to regulate prediction markets more tightly. But the industry is fighting back, arguing that these markets are a form of free speech. For now, tribal casinos are doing what they do best: adapting. They’re investing in online platforms, adding sports betting, and improving their customer experience. But the threat from prediction markets isn’t going away. And as one tribal leader put it, “We can’t afford to ignore it.” So, what do you think? Are prediction markets a passing fad or a real threat? Either way, tribal gaming leaders are making sure their voices are heard.